You might expect ABL's Healthcare Members to have strong opinions about the mortality and morbidity rates of COVID-19 - and they do! What's really impressed me is how knowledgeable (and concerned) ABL's Technology CEOs are about the virus. Here are the voices of three of them - John Tanner, Jason Ciment, and Dave Berkus - who are well worth listening to.

JOHN TANNER, PhD, CEO, Tanner Research - With a PhD from Caltech, John knows his way around a calculator, and he used it in a recent letter to the followers of NuSci.org, his nonprofit that promotes healthy nutrition. In his three-page letter, John delves into the math behind the spread of COVID-19, extrapolating from the "new cases" reported daily in Los Angeles County, reminding us that in early June, the County reported ~1000 new cases/day. John begins his equation with the current number of daily new cases detected through COVID testing and reported in LA County [MG: I'm using 3,158, the number reported on Worldometers.info, yesterday, 7/20/20]. John also notes that "some experts expect that there are about 5 times as many actual cases as reported because most people are not tested and therefore most cases are not reported." [MG: At first I thought the "5 times" number was high - but it's not: according to Worldometers, a study of New Yorkers, tested in grocery stores and community centers, showed that 19.9% of them had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. Based on NYC's population of 8,398,748, this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected and recovered. However, "the number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883, more than 10 times less." So we'll go with John's - probably conservative - 5 times.] John then "assumes that an infected person is infectious to others for about 20 days." [MG: This also seemed a little high, as the CDC recommends isolation for at least 10 days after your symptoms first appear AND at least three days after recovery, but there are exceptions - including a study published in Medscape that concluded, "viral shedding... ranged from 8-37 days, with a median of 20 days." So, again, we'll go with John's 20 days.]

So far, John's equation looks like this: Daily New Cases x 5 x 20 /10,000,000 x 100 = Percent in LA County Currently Infectious

3,158 people tested COVID-19 positive yesterday in LA County
X 5 times as many people really were positive
X 20 days of infection
= 315,800 Infectious people in LA County today/
10 million people in the County
= .03158
X 100
= 3.158% percent of the people in LA County are currently COVID-19 infectious

John advises us to, "Keep that number in mind as you decide whether you want to go to your favorite restaurant or the beach and whether you want to keep your mask on or not." And, after delving into the high cost in lives of herd immunity, John concludes, "I hope we can find a mitigation strategy that doesn't involve over a million of us dying. Let us be selfless with our masks, hand washing, and social distancing to give our technologists the time they need to work their miracle."

JASON CIMENT, CEO, GetVisble Digital Marketing Agency - In addition to having 4 school-age children, Jason's digital marketing clients include several who supply mountains of PPE and hand sanitizer. So he's had a front-row seat to see and feel the impact of COVID-19 on families, and businesses. Which has prompted his self-described "rant"...

The media in the USA is playing a dangerous game talking about 4%* Covid rates. If you don't separate comorbidity and age range from the rest of the population, it is misleading in a big way. I have been reading the very large Hamilton biography. One of the things he wrote in The Federalist Papers was fear of the mob. The mob can go both ways. The mob can march for lock down or it can advocate for opening up the economy. Both arguments can have merit depending on the whole situation. What is dangerous though is putting out numbers without context. People are scared and uncertain. If you hear people putting out scary numbers and generalizing them to the whole population, call them out on it. This is not a political gesture. This is a plea to promote peace amongst diversity (of opinion and lifestyle). It is too easy when people are riled up, to see bad decisions getting made. The US economy can't sustain this. The global economy can't sustain it either.

...And college kids staying home is one thing. College is a privilege and it is arguable with not much of a challenge that college kids can learn online. And they will have to give up beer runs and frat parties. But smaller kids who need the social dynamic and the corollary benefits of being in school on top of the burden to the parents, there has to be a way to get them into school – if not full time then part time. Maybe fewer but longer days. For example, having recent college grads as proctors in the classroom and the teachers zooming in to teach the class. The easy answer of shutting down does not make it the right answer. And there are models from other countries that are not doing total lockdown that are workable.

Bottom line is we should all look forward to better times of more certainty where people don't wake up and run to turn on the always disappointing news (any channel) but rather wake up and stretch and simply appreciate that it's a new day with wonderful opportunities to live and be free here. Secondly, and really important, is that even if you are young and healthy, don't forget that everyone you meet is a potential recipient of the virus you may be carrying. Covid is an opportunity to grow and think about others before you think about yourself. And this comment goes to both sides of the aisle. I'm not preaching here. I am sharing that I got schooled by my good friend who is close to turning 80 and he said "we are scared" because the people under 70 are not sensitive to what we are feeling. And that's not fair."

[MG: The "4%" COVID mortality rate is deduced by dividing the total number of global deaths (613,389) by the total number of cases (14,860,511) = 4.1%. However, using the same approach in the U.S., where there have been 143,835 deaths and 3,961,556 cases, the mortality rate is 3.6; and in California, with 8,814 deaths and 399,898 cases, it's only 2.2%.]

DAVE BERKUS, President, Berkus Technology Ventures - Having invested in over 200 technology companies, Dave has traveled the world delivering keynotes on tech trends and success factors for entrepreneurs. He's also the author of 14 books, and his Berkonomics blog, that influences over 120,000 readers every week.

We can argue the average vs. specifics about the 4%. But I can tell you that most everyone over 65 in this country is at least a bit scared that a generation will be decimated if younger citizens don't respect the rules and give up a little freedom until we have an effective preventative.

Today, the entire student leadership of Occidental signed a petition to the College president to allow the students to remain in remote learning, for fear of exposing the staff and faculty. That in contrast to 90% stating they wanted to return in the fall in a poll taken in March.

This is not an argument over 4%. It is over the relative health of a world containing the unhealthy, those unable to fight the virus, and the elderly.

[MG: In The OC, it isn't "20% of the population that has 80% of the deaths"; it's "5%* of the population that has 53% of the deaths." (*SNF residents and prisoners.) And, to a great extent, we know where these folks live. The problem is the "outliers" who don't fit the mold, the 95% of the population that has 47% of the deaths. And, it's for the 47% that the rest of us are inconveniencing ourselves - at great cost to The Economy and our Personal Businesses and Employment. IMHO, in the absence of a vaccine, testing's the answer. The likelihood of testing positive in The OC has increased from 5 to 15%. With universal testing, the faster we can get that 15% - many of whom have "light symptoms" (if any) - off the streets to truly shelter at home to recover, the sooner the rest of us can go back to life on the streets and in our businesses.]

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